Michael Moore warns Trump is winning

Thomas Veil

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Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win
Film-maker says enthusiasm for president in swing states is ‘off the charts’ and urges everyone to commit to getting 100 people to vote

The documentary film-maker Michael Moore has warned that Donald Trump appears to have such momentum in some battleground states that liberals risk a repeat of 2016 when so many wrote off Trump only to see him grab the White House.
“Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said.
Moore, who was one of few political observers to predict Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that “enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts” in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden....
“The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?” Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.
“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he later added.
Well that is fucking sobering. 😳

Edited to add link to original article. (I had trouble getting this to post properly this morning.)
 
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ericgtr12

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Michael Moore shits on everything all the time and has been hard to watch for years now. That said, if we get lazy or complacent Trump does stand a very good chance of winning re-election. Biden needs to step up his attacks because Trump is going to be unrelenting and will steamroll over him otherwise.

As for the battleground states, I'll put my stock in the actual numbers and statistics. Listening to Michael Moore talk anecdotally about this is like getting Coronvirus facts from Donald Trump, stick with the facts.
 

Thomas Veil

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Yes, it's anecdotal. But when the signs were pointing to Hillary last time, only two people I know of called it for Trump and were correct. One was Michael Moore. The other was my daughter, who was deeply concerned because she saw way more yard signs for Trump than for Hillary.

I kind of laughed inside at the naivete. The stats, I told her.

Now here we are two months out, and to quote Twin Peaks, it is happening again. I'm seeing lots of Trump signs and flags in neighborhoods around town.
 

ericgtr12

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Yes, it's anecdotal. But when the signs were pointing to Hillary last time, only two people I know of called it for Trump and were correct. One was Michael Moore. The other was my daughter, who was deeply concerned because she saw way more yard signs for Trump than for Hillary.

I kind of laughed inside at the naivete. The stats, I told her.

Now here we are two months out, and to quote Twin Peaks, it is happening again. I'm seeing lots of Trump signs and flags in neighborhoods around town.
I think it's fair to say nobody wants to make that mistake again, we've seen what a serious threat Trump is and how the polls didn't really take the pulse last time. We know that Biden isn't taking any of these battleground states for granted this time around, we're spending in the right places and learning from 2016. It won't guarantee a victory but at least we know those bases are now being covered.
 

lizkat

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Turnout will be everything. We already know Trump lost support among suburban women and some groups of independent voters by time the midterms came along. Nothing he's done since then will have reeled them back in. So the main thing is to ensure a good turnout of Dem leaning (or anti-Trump) voters and so make the margin of votes for Biden-Harris in those swing states as high as possible.

Remind people to use vote.org to step through making sure their reggie to vote is in place and how to qualify for absentee ballots (and obtain one) in the state of their registration. Kick in a few bucks to help that organization reach out to more potential voters. They are a 501(c)(3) entity.
 

Thomas Veil

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I missed this story over the weekend.

Let’s hear it for the NBA.

NBA polling places: Which arenas will serve as voting sites for November election after player protests

"In every city where the league franchise owns and controls the arena property, team governors will continue to work with local elections officials to convert the facility into a voting location for the 2020 general election to allow for a safe in-person voting option for communities vulnerable to COVID," the NBA's statement read. "If a deadline has passed, team governors will work with local elections officials to find another election-related use for the facility, including but not limited to voter registration and ballot receiving boards."
Let’s hope the voter turnout is yuge.
 

Scepticalscribe

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I read his piece in the Observer (Sunday paper in the Guardian stable), yesterday, and would view it more as a stern and stark reminder not to become complacent, that the election is not over until all of the votes have been cast and counted.

@lizkat's point is salient; the only female demographic who voted for Mr Trump in large numbers in 2016 were white woman, and, even among white women, even then, Secretary Clinton polled better among white college-educated women than did Mr Trump, who did, however, poll better among white suburban women, and white working class women.

Every other female demographic voted heavily against him at the time.

However, as is clear from the 2018 mid-term, suburban women were increasingly antagonised and alienated by Mr Trump, and nothing I have seen suggests that this has changed since then.

Mr Trump's support is overwhelmingly comprised of white men, of all social classes, but especially those who are obscenely wealthy, and those who are a lot less well off.

The key thing is to ensure that people actually bestir themselves and get out and vote: That far-left, sulky, self-indulgent stance of staying at home because the better candidate of the remaining pair is by no means the best candidate that might have been appeared on the ballot paper had circumstances been different, in a perfect universe, is arrant nonsense.

And, by the way, firstly, I do not believe that Bernie - Senator Sanders, was "robbed" in 2016. This year's primaries exposed the true extent of his support, and it was little changed from what he had managed to secure in 2016.

And secondly, had he ever, by some weird and wonderful, mad twist of fate (and a sufficiency of votes at the convention) managed to secure the Democrat nomination as their candidate for presidential office, I don't think that he would have had the proverbial snowball's chance in hell of winning the presidential election.
 
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ericgtr12

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Ok I obviously liked your comment because of the reference.

My odds are as follows right now:
Biden 51% of winning.
Trump 49% of winning.

Very much tightened up than a few weeks ago.
I'm sorry, but wt actual f is this? "your odds" needs some real data to back it up. I'll wait.
 
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yaxomoxay

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I'm sorry, but wt actual f is this? "your odds" needs some real data to back it up. I'll wait.
If you take my odds as a serious thing based on reliable data and scientific research I recommend that you revise your expectations.

My odds based on the most reliable statistical measure of all: my guts.
 

ericgtr12

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If you take my odds as a serious thing based on reliable data and scientific research I recommend that you revise your expectations.

My odds based on the most reliable statistical measure of all: my guts.
Fair enough then. I'm guessing even Trump's guts don't have it that close. 😜
 
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hulugu

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Ok I obviously liked your comment because of the reference.

My odds are as follows right now:
Biden 51% of winning.
Trump 49% of winning.

Very much tightened up than a few weeks ago.
Biden's chance is about 60 percent, I think. The real question is how the conventions helped or hurt their candidates. I suspect that Biden didn't get much of a bounce from the convention, but Trump won't even get a dead cat bounce, and may even lose some ground in polls.

And, Trump's whole "law and order" schtick is going to run out of steam with voters, just like him flipping out about the caravans didn't work in 2018. People will care about the economy and COVID-19, and those problems aren't going away.
 
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yaxomoxay

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Biden's chance is about 60 percent, I think.
Again, the numbers I wrote are based on absolutely nothing. It’s like me saying “chances of having a sexual relation with a Playmate and have my wife being happy about it.” I can’t prove it scientifically but I am confident it’s 0% or very close to it.